This is not analysis, and it is not a prediction. These are just two interesting data points. In Pennsylvania, Democratic mail ballot requests are down 14% from the same point in 2022, while Republican requests are up 11%. In Iowa, six days before Election Day, Republican early ballots returned are up 41% over 2022. Democratic returns are up 22%. Democrats still lead in both states, but their share of Iowa’s early vote has dropped from 54% to about 49%.
Two states is not a trend, and early votes are not final votes. Some Democrats may simply be waiting to vote on Election Day. Party numbers show voter registration, not how anyone actually voted. Still, it is worth watching. We will know a lot more on November 3.
Meanwhile, no matter what your party or who you support, get out and vote!