I saw this post on X by Scott Presler and ended up diving down a rabbit hole
Everyone says a blue wave is building for 2026. The national generic ballot sits around D+7 to D+9. Pennsylvania-specific numbers have looked even better for Democrats. Special elections and the broader mood have reinforced the narrative that Republican enthusiasm is soft and Democratic voters are motivated.
The early mail ballot returns in Pennsylvania tell a quieter story.
As of October 14, state data showed roughly 245,600 Democratic ballots and 75,400 Republican ballots returned through October 13, 21 days before Election Day. At the same point in 2022, the numbers were about 272,000 Democratic and 68,700 Republican. Democrats are down about 10 percent from their 2022 pace. Republicans are up about 10 percent. The Democratic share of the two-party early vote is a few points lower than it was in 2022, and the overall D–R gap among returned ballots is narrower.
That is not what a wave looks like in the early data.
In 2022, Pennsylvania polls showed Republicans ahead on the generic ballot by about five points. Even so, early mail was still heavily Democratic—roughly four-to-one. That was the normal pattern given longstanding partisan differences in voting method. In 2026 the polling environment is more favorable to Democrats, yet the early mail numbers have moved in the opposite direction of what a strong Democratic surge would produce. Democrats are running behind their 2022 early pace; Republicans are running ahead of theirs.
Mail ballots in Pennsylvania have always skewed Democratic. A genuine blue-wave environment would more likely show Democrats well ahead of their 2022 early returns and Republicans lagging. Instead, volume remains modest, Democrats are behind their 2022 pace, and Republicans have improved their early numbers relative to the last midterm.
None of this decides the election. Early mail is still only a fraction of the total vote that will eventually be cast, and Republicans in Pennsylvania continue to prefer Election Day. The next few weeks of returns, and especially what happens on Election Day itself, will matter more than any snapshot in mid-October. But if a wave were already forming with real intensity, the early ballot returns in a state as closely watched as Pennsylvania would probably look different than they do.
So far, they don’t.
I read the data so you don’t have to. Pull up a chair. Subscribe free.