There’s a particular noise that starts within hours of a school shooting. You know it. The statements, the hashtags, the same two camps lining up to say the same two things. I’ve been sitting with the news out of Bend, Oregon, for a day now, and I want to try something different. Pull up a chair, light up, and let’s start having the real conversation.
What Happened
Here is what’s confirmed, and I’m only giving you what I could check.
At about 12:59 p.m. on Thursday, October 15, Deschutes County dispatch took a call from someone in a vehicle who said they’d been shot at “multiple times by a person with a long gun,” Police Chief Mike Krantz told reporters (Washington Post). Within a minute, more 911 calls said the gunman had entered Silver Rail Elementary (Bend PD). He shot through the glass of a locked side door to get in.
He was 16. He killed three children, ages 5, 8 and 11, and a teacher. A 7-year-old girl and a 54-year-old teacher were wounded. As of Saturday both were in serious condition, and doctors expect the teacher to survive (KPTV).
Then a “community member who had seen the suspect enter the school and pursued him into the school and engaged him” shot and killed him (Krantz, via the Post). That community member was Kaylub Giamanco, 36, a father of two Silver Rail girls, who grabbed the pistol legally secured in his truck, ran in, and found a teacher already fighting the shooter for his shotgun (OPB). Officers were there by 1:02 p.m. That’s three minutes. Three minutes is fast for police. It’s also a very long time inside an elementary school.
Police now say he used a pump-action 12-gauge shotgun and fired at least 15 rounds. Officials told reporters his mother bought it for him around his birthday in August (Seattle Times). Police haven’t said how he got it or how it was stored, and no charges against the parents have been announced (Oregonian). He was a former special-needs student at Silver Rail, and police say he went straight for a special-needs classroom. No motive has been released (NBC News).
My heart goes out to those families, to that staff, and to Kaylub Giamanco and the teacher who tackled the shooter. As Governor Kotek put it, his actions “carry a heavy emotional burden.”
Answer #1: Pass More Laws
Senator Ron Wyden said the response the way that side always does: “The best way to honor these victims is to at long last pass common-sense gun laws that reduce the risks of more children, parents, teachers and staff forced to live in fear of similar nightmares for their schools” (Fox News).
I don’t doubt he means it. But look at the facts on the ground. A 16-year-old can’t legally buy a gun in Oregon (BBC). Oregon already ranks 12th-strictest in the country by Everytown’s own count. And the gun reportedly came out of his own house.
Then there’s the math nobody wants to talk about. NSSF estimates 506.1 million firearms in civilian possession as of 2023. The independent Small Arms Survey put it at 393 million in 2017, about 120 for every 100 Americans. Pick whichever number you like. No law passed next year changes the fact that hundreds of millions of guns already exist, mostly in homes. And homes are exactly where school shooters get them.
Answer #2: More Good Guys With Guns
The other camp has a case, and Bend made it out loud. An armed citizen ended this. Kostas Moros of the Second Amendment Foundation laid out an alternative: let permit holders carry on school grounds, let willing teachers with permits carry, add heavier and possibly gunfire-resistant doors, put two armed SROs in every school, try new tech like drones, and add civil and criminal liability for parents who don’t secure their guns (Bearing Arms). His line: “The one thing I can agree with the gun control groups on: no child should ever be killed at school... But their solutions have failed.”
I’m a carry guy, and I agree with a lot of that. Hardening works. Those locked doors probably bought time (even Moros calls that speculation), and that bystander saved lives. But be honest about what it is. Every item on that list, apart from the storage piece, kicks in after a troubled kid is already walking toward the building with a gun. That’s the last line of defense. It isn’t a plan.
The Part Both Sides Skip
The Secret Service has studied this harder than anyone, and its findings get skipped by both camps.
In Protecting America’s Schools (2019), the National Threat Assessment Center looked at 41 attacks on K-12 schools from 2008 to 2017. There is “no profile of a student attacker.” But “most attackers used firearms, and firearms were most often acquired from the home.” “Most attackers had experienced psychological, behavioral, or developmental symptoms.” Nearly all had trouble at home. And this is the one that should keep you up at night: “All attackers exhibited concerning behaviors. Most elicited concern from others, and most communicated their intent to attack.”
In 2021, NTAC studied 67 plots that were stopped, involving 100 plotters from 2006 to 2018. First finding: “Targeted school violence is preventable, if communities can identify warning signs and intervene.” The plotters had shared their plans in 94% of cases, and 95% of the plotters were male (Washington Post). In the actual attacks, 76% of shooters who used guns got them from home.
The Violence Project’s NIJ-funded research says the same thing in starker terms (NIJ). Most K-12 mass shooters “show outward signs of crisis” beforehand and usually leak their plans. Between 92% and 100% were suicidal. And 80% stole the gun from a family member.
So here’s the root cause, stated plainly: mostly young men in crisis, who tell people, who show us, and who take the gun from home. Neither a ban nor a holster reaches that kid in time. People do.
What Actually Works
Threat assessment teams. Every school should have one, made up of administrators, a mental-health professional and law enforcement. They should take reports seriously and follow up. NIJ calls this a “promising prevention strategy,” and the Secret Service has published a free operational model for it. Two-thirds of foiled mass-shooting plots are detected through public reporting (NIJ).
Intervention before handcuffs. NTAC’s point is that schools should step in “before their behavior warrants legal consequences,” and that “removing a student from school does not eliminate the risk.” Expelling a kid in crisis doesn’t solve anything. It just takes him off your radar.
Parents. “The role of parents and families in recognizing concerning behavior is critical to prevention” (USSS). That means knowing what your son is doing online, noticing when he goes dark, and locking up your guns. Not “hidden in the closet.” Locked, in a way your teenager can’t beat. Gun owners should lead on this, because it’s our responsibility and nobody else’s. The Apalachee case, where a father was convicted of second-degree murder, shows where the law is heading if we don’t.
And yes, harden the target. Keep the doors and the trained SROs, and respect the citizen who runs toward the gunfire. Just know that layer is your last one.
The Bottom Line
The law-and-order crowd and the gun-control crowd are both arguing about the last three minutes. The evidence says the fight is usually won or lost in the months before, when a kid starts telling people he’s not okay.
Watch. Listen. Report. Lock it up.
That’s the real conversation. Pour something strong and go have it with your kids tonight.
Further Reading
U.S. Secret Service NTAC, Protecting America’s Schools (2019)
U.S. Secret Service NTAC, Averting Targeted School Violence (2021)
NIJ, Five Facts About Mass Shootings in K-12 Schools
Bearing Arms, SAF’s Moros Offers Better Alternative to Gun Control
#Observations #SecondAmendment #Mindset #LateRepublic